PGA Championship Odds 2021

PGA Championship Odds 2021

PGA Championship Odds 2021

The odds on favorite for winning the 2021 PGA Championship right now is Rory McIlroy, at 11/1. That gives him an implied probability of 8.33%.

McIlroy has had a good year, winning the Wells Fargo Championship and finishing T5 in the 2021 Masters. Overall, he’s had five top ten finishes.

When McIlroy’s game is on there are few who can compete with him.

Right behind Rory in the odds list are a cluster of players at 14/1: Bryson Dechambeau, John Rahm, Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas.

Dechambeau looks strong this year (pun intended), with a win at the US Open in September, a win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a T3 at The Players. That puts him in the top spot in the season’s FedEx Cup Rankings. The Incredible Bulk of course ranks first in Driving Distance, but also ranks 172nd in driving accuracy. While his length may help on the longest course ever et up for a championship, Kiawah’s wind might have something to say about Dechambeau’s chances.

Rahm seems as though he is in the bettor’s mix based on potential. He has no wins this year, with his best finish being a T2 at the ZoZo Championship. He did, however finish T5 at the Masters. Rahm is long off the tee (18th on TOUR) and significantly more accurate than DeChambeau, ranking 59th. Perhaps more significantly, he’s fourth in Greens in Regulation.

Spieth is a comeback story in recent months. Having completely lost his way, the wunderkind has come back to win the Valero Texas Open — his first victory in four years. He also has a T3 at the Masters and the AT&T Pebble Beach. In all, he has seven top tens in the 2021 season. He has, however, also missed four cuts.

Thomas currently ranks second in the FedEx Cup rankings, with a win at the Players Championship. That’s not a major (in spite of the PGA TOUR’s efforts to make it one), but it is one of the toughest fields in golf. He also has five top ten finishes to his name.

Outside of the top five, Colin Morikawa will be on the watchlist as he defends his title. Morikawa currently ranks 25th in the FedEx Cup rankings. He has some impressive stats, though, leading the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained on Approach to the Greens and second in Strokes Gained Tee to Green.

And then there’s Rickie Fowler, who is in the PGA Championship only via special invitation. Long one of my favorite players, Fowler is a 150/1 longshot. That’s not the worst odds (there are a lot of players at 2500/1), but it’s among the worst of the names you’d recognize.

Fowler has simply looked lost in recent months. He’s been going through a swing rehabilitation, but something about it just doesn’t seem to be clicking. He’s 178th in Storkes Gained Approaching The Green, 141st in Greens in Regulation, and 178th in Strokes Gained Putting. That’s not how you win a regular tour event, let alone a major.

I sincerely hope Fowler gets it back together.

PGA Championship Odds for the top 50 players in the field follow, courtesy of Bovada.

Player American Line Fractional Implied Probability
Rory Mcilroy 1100 11/1 8.33%
Bryson Dechambeau 1400 14/1 6.70%
John Rahm 1400 14/1 6.70%
Jordan Spieth 1400 14/1 6.70%
Justin Thomas 1400 14/1 6.70%
Dustin Johnson 1600 16/1 5.80%
Xander Schauffele 1800 18/1 5.26%
Viktor Hovland 2000 20/1 4.76%
Colin Morikawa 2800 28/1 3.45%
Daniel Berger 2800 28/1 3.45%
Brooks Koepka 3300 33/1 2.94%
Patrick Reed 3300 33/1 2.94%
Webb Simpson 3300 33/1 2.94%
Cameron Smith 4000 40/1 2.44%
Hideki Matsuyama 4000 40/1 2.44%
Patrick Cantlay 4000 40/1 2.44%
Tony Finau 4000 40/1 2.44%
Tyrell Hatton 4000 40/1 2.44%
Abraham Ancer 5000 50/1 1.96%
Corey Conners 5000 50/1 1.96%
Joaquin Niemann 5000 50/1 1.96%
Sam Burns 5000 50/1 1.96%
Scottie Scheffler 5000 50/1 1.96%
Will Zalatoris 5000 50/1 1.96%
Mark Leishman 6600 66/1 1.49%
Matthew Fitzpatrick 6600 66/1 1.49%
Tommy Fleetwood 6600 66/1 1.49%
Adam Scott 8000 80/1 1.23%
Justin Rose 8000 80/1 1.23%
Keegan Bradley 8000 80/1 1.23%
Louis Oosthuizen 8000 80/1 1.23%
Paul Casey 8000 80/1 1.23%
Shane Lowry 8000 80/1 1.23%
Sungjae Im 8000 80/1 1.23%
Brian Harman 8000 80/1 1.23%
Bubba Watson 10000 100/1 0.99%
Gary Woodland 10000 100/1 0.99%
Jason Day 10000 100/1 0.99%
Matt Wallace 10000 100/1 0.99%
Sergio Garcia 10000 100/1 0.99%
Si Woo Kim 10000 100/1 0.99%
Charl Swchwartzel 12500 125/1 0.79%
Garrick Higgo 12500 125/1 0.79%
Harris English 12500 125/1 0.79%
Jason Kokrak 12500 125/1 0.79%
K.H. Lee 12500 125/1 0.79%
Lee Westwood 12500 125/1 0.79%
Matt Kuchar 12500 125/1 0.79%
Max Homa 12500 125/1 0.79%
Robert McIntyre 12500 125/1 0.79%
Billy Horschel 15000 150/1 0.66
Cameron Champ 15000 150/1 0.66
Cameron Tringale 15000 150/1 0.66
Emilio Grillo 15000 150/1 0.66
Rickie Fowler 15000 150/1 0.66
Stewart Cink 15000 150/1 0.66

The article PGA Championship Odds 2021 was first published on GolfBlogger Golf Blog May 18, 2021.

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